SNP are new proof things changing fast in politics—Chris Mason

(MENAFN) Just a year ago, the Scottish National Party appeared to be in serious trouble. Following a crushing defeat in the general election, their representation dropped from 48 MPs to only nine. Leadership instability compounded the issue, with Nicola Sturgeon, Humza Yousaf, and John Swinney all holding the top post in just over a year—a turnover rate that would challenge even the most tumultuous parties.

The party had also faced a high-profile police investigation into its finances, with Sturgeon ultimately cleared of any wrongdoing, and internal disputes over gender identity further stirred tensions. With the SNP in power in Scotland since 2007, some observers felt electoral fatigue and the weight of longevity might finally catch up with them, especially with the Scottish Parliament elections looming next May.

Yet, as the latest developments show, politics can shift rapidly. Swinney has brought stability to the party, and support among rivals such as Labour and Reform has fractured. Polling by More in Common indicates:
"Since last year's general election, Labour's support has more than halved in Scotland while the SNP has marginally improved its standing. While not seeing as significant a rise as in England, Reform has emerged as the potential second-place party after the SNP in Scotland, suppressing the Conservatives' vote share as well as eating into Labour's."

The analysis notes that even with an 11-point drop in constituency votes, the SNP could still fall just short of a majority in Holyrood, thanks largely to fragmentation among other parties. While this snapshot isn’t a forecast, it reflects the party’s renewed competitiveness and the upbeat mood among members at recent conferences.

For the SNP, regaining—or even securing a majority—has broader implications beyond electoral success. A majority would strengthen their argument for another independence referendum, mirroring the path taken under Alex Salmond in 2011 that led to the 2014 vote. However, the UK government remains opposed to any new referendum, and much would depend on the wider political landscape, including Labour’s performance across the UK and Sir Keir Starmer’s position at Westminster.

Critics continue to highlight domestic challenges in Scotland, pointing to issues such as the NHS, housing, and drug-related deaths. The SNP counters with achievements like free university tuition and free prescriptions, proudly displayed during conference events.

Underlying all of this is the constitutional divide in Scotland, which remains roughly 50/50 between pro-independence and pro-union voters. This split provides the SNP with a reservoir of potential support, allowing them to defy the typical political pressures that might punish a party after such a long period in office.

Ultimately, the SNP’s resurgence is a reminder that political fortunes can change quickly, and conventions—even those shaped by long-term incumbency—can be upended at any moment.

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